Most popular programs
Trending now
Don't let the absence of data or the lack of appropriate data affect your decision-making. In this introductory course you will discover the theory behind Structured Expert Judgment.
6,724 already enrolled!
In an increasingly data-driven world, data and its use aren't always all it's cracked up to be. This course aims to explain how expert opinion can help in many areas where complex decisions need to be made.
For instance, how can you predict volcano activity when no eruptions have been recorded over a long period of time? Or how can you predict how many people will be resistant to antibiotics in a country where there is no available data at national level? Or how about estimating the time needed to evacuate people in flood risk areas?
In situations like these, expert opinions are needed to address complex decision-making problems. This course will show you the basics of various techniques that use expert opinion for uncertainty quantification. These techniques vary from the informal and undocumented opinion of one expert to a fully documented and formal elicitation of a panel of experts, such as the Classical Model (CM) or Cooke's method, which is arguably the most rigorous method for performing Structured Expert Judgment.
CM, developed at TU Delft by Roger Cooke, has been successfully applied for over 30 years in areas as diverse as climate change, disaster management, epidemiology, public and global health, ecology, aeronautics/aerospace, nuclear safety, environment and ecology, engineering and many others.
Basic concepts in Probability Theory and Statistics. Links to videos introducing the concepts will be provided.
By the end of the course all learners will be able to:
Verified learners will have the added benefit of being able to:
WEEK 1: Why and when to use SEJ?
WEEK 2: Statistical accuracy (calibration) and information score
WEEK 3: Performance-based weights and the Decision Maker
WEEK 4: Data analysis
WEEK 5: Applications of CM
WEEK 6: Practical matters (biases, experts, elicitation)
Sithara Buddhini (Sri Lanka) :
“This course was really helpful and informative in allowing us to understand the method even if we do not have any mathematical background. Just after completing this course, I designed a questionnaire according to the method and got amazing feedback and output. I really like the way this course is delivered, it was really simple to grasp the core. There is more research that is using these methods which are really interesting and powerful for analyzing expert judgments.”
Assistant Professor of Applied Probability • Delft University of Technology
Senior Researcher at the Centre of Excellence for Biosecurity Risk Analysis (CEBRA) • University of Melbourne
Chauncey Starr Senior Fellow at Resources for Future in Washington and Emeritus Professor • Delft University of Technology